Why are Angels pitchers struggling with two strikes?

Introduction

Generally having two strikes is favorable for the pitcher. Hitters are hitting 0.171 in 2023 with two strikes but the Angels are giving up a BA of 0.187. For an 0-2 count it is tougher with hitters hitting 0.151 but the Angels are giving up a league worst 0.209 BA. The question is simple: Why? I dig into the data to see if there is anything we can find from it.

Methodology

Data was taken from Baseball Savant of all two-strike counts that led to an outcome (hit/out) for Angels pitchers through June 5th, 2023.

Results

Location

Here is a reference to the zones I will be referencing:

First I looked at where the pitchers are throwing the baseball in two strike counts.

zone	count
14	155
13	117
5	111
8	76
4	74
6	74
12	70
11	64
9	62
7	61
2	57
3	55
1	53

The top two zones are low and away/outside but shockingly third and fourth on this list are middle/middle and middle/down. Pitching in the heart of the plate is obviously not good, and a pitch being down goes right into the swing path of a hitter in this launch angle revolution.

Here is how things look on an 0-2 count:

zone	count
14	53
13	22
4	20
6	15
7	15
12	15
5	13
9	12
2	10
3	10
8	10
11	10
1	7

The first two are the exact same as two strike counts so it seems the philosophy is to try to get a hitter to swing and miss something down low. Though middle/middle (zone 5) isn’t third here, 4 & 6 are middle/in or out.

Unsurprisingly, with two strikes the hits are mostly when the location is zone 5 but on 0-2 it is zone 14. Seemingly the ball is not getting down enough in zone 14.

Pitch Type

Now let’s look at pitch type in two strike counts.

pitch_type	count
FF	269
SL	250
CH	239
ST	100
CU	55
FC	45
FS	35
SI	32
KC	4

So in a two strike count they are throwing a four-seam fastball the most followed by the slider.

Let’s look at 0-2

pitch_type	count
FF	52
SL	50
CH	47
ST	24
CU	13
FS	11
FC	8
SI	6
KC	1

Similar story here, with four seam fastballs being thrown the most. The majority of hits on 0-2 are sliders followed by the four-seam fastball.

Pitch Type + Location

We’ve looked at pitch type and location separately but now let’s slice the data by both (looking at the top 10), starting with two strikes.

pitch_type	zone	count
CH	14	55
SL	14	42
FF	11	41
SL	13	40
CH	13	36
FF	5	35
ST	14	34
FF	12	32
CH	8	31
FF	2	31

There is a clear trend here of throwing a changeup or slider down in the zone an a fastball up/in or outside. However, 35 pitches were middle/middle four seam fastballs!

Let’s look at 0-2

pitch_type	zone	count
CH	14	18
SL	14	14
ST	14	12
SL	13	10
FF	12	9
FF	3	8
FF	4	7
FF	11	7
CH	8	6
CH	13	6

Similar story here but no middle/middle fastball. Interestingly, the slider and changeup low/outside or inside resulted in the most hits on 0-2

Visualizing Two-Strike Hits

Lastly, let’s take a look at the location of two strike hits.

Of course the middle of the plate is showing up the most, but a large majority are in the strike zone, and if they aren’t they are close to the strike zone.

Conclusion

So what does this all mean? Unsurprisingly, middle/middle fastballs and sliders are punished but there is a clear pitching philosophy to get hitters out down in the zone rather than up in the zone. This leads to a higher possibility of bloop hits with higher launch angles. A confounding variable here is pitch sequencing, which could be an issue as well but beyond the scope of this post. I am no pitching coach but I think the Angels need to try to get hitters out more up with the fastball and also get the ball lower or more lateral movement out of the strike zone.

It will come down to execution, and I hope they can turn this around.

Data

• https://baseballsavant.mlb.com
• https://www.baseball-reference.com